Transportation emissions in Lebanon: Extent and mitigation

Transport related emissions have been long associated with adverse impacts on air quality particularly in densely populated urban areas. This paper evaluates the contribution of the road transport sector, in a typical small developing country, to air pollutants emissions. The Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory (MVEI) computer based model, with inputs adjusted to the fleet and conditions at hand, is used to predict the contributions of different classes of vehicles and to forecast the corresponding emissions for the year 2020. Emissions reduction and the sensitivity to changes in factors such as fleet age, fleet technology, average speed and travel volume are assessed. Apart from the do-nothing scenario, two scenarios are developed to explore the feasibility and benefits of different mitigation approaches. The first scenario investigates the mitigation potential of measures related to the fleet age and new technology application. The second scenario addresses the effectiveness of transport planning and demand reduction in decreasing emissions. The results show various degrees of success in reducing emissions of different pollutants. Mitigation measures best applicable in Lebanon, economically and technologically, are presented. The need for an air quality management plan for the application of these mitigation measures is illustrated. Finally, a general framework for air quality management is developed.